1. The vulnerability of softwater, oligotrophic lakes to eutrophication has caused the disappearance of many, if not most, of the unique isoetid plant communities. We tested whether the presence or disappearance of the isoetid Littorella uniflora (L.) could be predicted from environmental parameters, soil types and land use in the catchment area, and atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

2. We found that the topographic catchment area of a lake was an irrelevant unit to study effects of soil type and land use. Instead, using a GIS-generated buffer zone around the lakes it proved feasible to classify 472 lakes into historical (if L. uniflora had disappeared) or recent (if L. uniflora was still present) Littorella lakes, based on soil type and land use. Our analysis showed that aeolian sand deposits and heath in the buffer zone favoured the presence of L. uniflora, whereas moraine clay and agriculture were strongly linked to the disappearance of L. uniflora.

3. However, in order to understand fully the presence or disappearance of L. uniflora, environmental data were needed in addition to soil types, land use and nitrogen deposition, and the use of discriminant analysis allowed us to classify 96% of the investigated lakes correctly into recent or historical sites. Alkalinity, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, aeolian sand deposits and heath were the most important parameters explaining the presence or disappearance of L. uniflora. Our analysis also indicated that eutrophication, rather than acidification, has likely caused the disappearance of L. uniflora from 218 of the 472 lakes investigated.

4. Our findings have widespread implications for the conservation or restoration of isoetid habitats and we recommend applying a wide buffer zone around lakes, with restrictions on farming and traditional forestry activities. In addition, our buffering concept may prove a useful tool for aquatic ecologists to investigate relationships between catchment features and organisms (plants, insects and amphibians) with aquatic as well as terrestrial life forms.