Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

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Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe. / Lenoir, Jonathan; Graae, Bente; Aarrestad, Per; Alsos, Inger; Armbruster, W; Austrheim, Gunnar; Bergendorff, Claes; Birks, H; Bråthen, Kari; Brunet, Jörg; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Dahlberg, Carl; Decocq, Guillaume; Diekmann, Martin; Dynesius, Mats; Ejrnaes, Rasmus; Grytnes, John-Arvid; Hylander, Kristoffer; Klanderud, Kari; Luoto, Miska; Milbau, Ann; Moora, Mari; Nygaard, Bettina; Odland, Arvid; Ravolainen, Virve; Reinhardt, Stefanie; Sandvik, Sylvi; Schei, Fride; Speed, James; Tveraabak, Liv; Vandvik, Vigdis; Velle, Liv; Virtanen, Risto; Zobel, Martin; Svenning, Jens-Christian.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, No. 5, 2013, p. 1470-1481.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Lenoir, J, Graae, B, Aarrestad, P, Alsos, I, Armbruster, W, Austrheim, G, Bergendorff, C, Birks, H, Bråthen, K, Brunet, J, Bruun, HH, Dahlberg, C, Decocq, G, Diekmann, M, Dynesius, M, Ejrnaes, R, Grytnes, J-A, Hylander, K, Klanderud, K, Luoto, M, Milbau, A, Moora, M, Nygaard, B, Odland, A, Ravolainen, V, Reinhardt, S, Sandvik, S, Schei, F, Speed, J, Tveraabak, L, Vandvik, V, Velle, L, Virtanen, R, Zobel, M & Svenning, J-C 2013, 'Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe', Global Change Biology, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 1470-1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12129

APA

Lenoir, J., Graae, B., Aarrestad, P., Alsos, I., Armbruster, W., Austrheim, G., Bergendorff, C., Birks, H., Bråthen, K., Brunet, J., Bruun, H. H., Dahlberg, C., Decocq, G., Diekmann, M., Dynesius, M., Ejrnaes, R., Grytnes, J-A., Hylander, K., Klanderud, K., ... Svenning, J-C. (2013). Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe. Global Change Biology, 19(5), 1470-1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12129

Vancouver

Lenoir J, Graae B, Aarrestad P, Alsos I, Armbruster W, Austrheim G et al. Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe. Global Change Biology. 2013;19(5):1470-1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12129

Author

Lenoir, Jonathan ; Graae, Bente ; Aarrestad, Per ; Alsos, Inger ; Armbruster, W ; Austrheim, Gunnar ; Bergendorff, Claes ; Birks, H ; Bråthen, Kari ; Brunet, Jörg ; Bruun, Hans Henrik ; Dahlberg, Carl ; Decocq, Guillaume ; Diekmann, Martin ; Dynesius, Mats ; Ejrnaes, Rasmus ; Grytnes, John-Arvid ; Hylander, Kristoffer ; Klanderud, Kari ; Luoto, Miska ; Milbau, Ann ; Moora, Mari ; Nygaard, Bettina ; Odland, Arvid ; Ravolainen, Virve ; Reinhardt, Stefanie ; Sandvik, Sylvi ; Schei, Fride ; Speed, James ; Tveraabak, Liv ; Vandvik, Vigdis ; Velle, Liv ; Virtanen, Risto ; Zobel, Martin ; Svenning, Jens-Christian. / Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe. In: Global Change Biology. 2013 ; Vol. 19, No. 5. pp. 1470-1481.

Bibtex

@article{a5609007354a4f51b0a76cce40f2f867,
title = "Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe",
abstract = "Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.",
author = "Jonathan Lenoir and Bente Graae and Per Aarrestad and Inger Alsos and W Armbruster and Gunnar Austrheim and Claes Bergendorff and H Birks and Kari Br{\aa}then and J{\"o}rg Brunet and Bruun, {Hans Henrik} and Carl Dahlberg and Guillaume Decocq and Martin Diekmann and Mats Dynesius and Rasmus Ejrnaes and John-Arvid Grytnes and Kristoffer Hylander and Kari Klanderud and Miska Luoto and Ann Milbau and Mari Moora and Bettina Nygaard and Arvid Odland and Virve Ravolainen and Stefanie Reinhardt and Sylvi Sandvik and Fride Schei and James Speed and Liv Tveraabak and Vigdis Vandvik and Liv Velle and Risto Virtanen and Martin Zobel and Jens-Christian Svenning",
year = "2013",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.12129",
language = "English",
volume = "19",
pages = "1470--1481",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
issn = "1354-1013",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "5",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

AU - Lenoir, Jonathan

AU - Graae, Bente

AU - Aarrestad, Per

AU - Alsos, Inger

AU - Armbruster, W

AU - Austrheim, Gunnar

AU - Bergendorff, Claes

AU - Birks, H

AU - Bråthen, Kari

AU - Brunet, Jörg

AU - Bruun, Hans Henrik

AU - Dahlberg, Carl

AU - Decocq, Guillaume

AU - Diekmann, Martin

AU - Dynesius, Mats

AU - Ejrnaes, Rasmus

AU - Grytnes, John-Arvid

AU - Hylander, Kristoffer

AU - Klanderud, Kari

AU - Luoto, Miska

AU - Milbau, Ann

AU - Moora, Mari

AU - Nygaard, Bettina

AU - Odland, Arvid

AU - Ravolainen, Virve

AU - Reinhardt, Stefanie

AU - Sandvik, Sylvi

AU - Schei, Fride

AU - Speed, James

AU - Tveraabak, Liv

AU - Vandvik, Vigdis

AU - Velle, Liv

AU - Virtanen, Risto

AU - Zobel, Martin

AU - Svenning, Jens-Christian

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

AB - Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.12129

DO - 10.1111/gcb.12129

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 23504984

VL - 19

SP - 1470

EP - 1481

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 5

ER -

ID: 47422642