Accounting for Winter Warming Events in the Ecosystem Model LPJ-GUESS: Evaluation and Outlook

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Winter warming events (WWEs) are short-lasting events of unusually warm weather, occasionally combined with rainfall, which can cause severe ecosystem impacts by altering ground temperatures and water fluxes. Despite their importance, how large-scale ecosystem models perform in depicting the impacts of WWEs remain largely unknown. The frequency and intensity of WWEs will likely increase further in the future, making it necessary to understand their potential impacts on high-latitude ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated the ability of the dynamic ecosystem model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) to represent the responses of subarctic ecosystems to future WWEs, and identified model gaps hindering more accurate estimates of these responses. In response to WWEs, the model simulated substantial ground cooling (up to 2°C in winter) due to reduced snow depth (insulation), with rain on snow (ROS) exerting a marginal influence on the ground temperature responses: these modeled responses are in apparent contradiction with the strong ground warming effect of ROS reported in most observational studies. The simulated ground cooling led to changes in biogeochemical fluxes that were substantial and often comparable in magnitude (but often opposite in direction) to those from altered winter climatologies. The mismatch between the modeled and the observed ground temperature responses to WWEs highlights LPJ-GUESS's current limitations in realistically simulating some of the effects of WWEs. These limitations likely stem from the (a) absence of a surface energy balance, (b) lack of snow-vegetation interactions, (c) daily time-step, and (d) simplistic water retention scheme in LPJ-GUESS.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummere2023JG007464
TidsskriftJournal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Vol/bind129
Udgave nummer3
Antal sider13
ISSN2169-8953
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2024

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
Open access funding provided by Lund University. We are grateful to the Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University for the grant received to promote research integration and advancement of early career researchers at the department 2018. We are also grateful to Anders Michelsen for valuable input. This study has been made possible by data provided by the Abisko Scientific Research Station and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). J.T. is financially supported by Swedish FORMAS mobility grant (2016‐01580) and acknowledges support from Lund University strategic research area Modelling the Regional and Global Earth System, MERGE. A.P acknowledges financial support from the Swedish Research Council (WinterGap, registration no. 2017–05268) and the Research Council of Norway (WINTERPROOF, project no. 274711). Parameter sensitivity testing were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Lund University (LUNARC).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024. The Authors.

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