Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Jonathan Lenoir
  • Bente Graae
  • Per Aarrestad
  • Inger Alsos
  • W Armbruster
  • Gunnar Austrheim
  • Claes Bergendorff
  • H Birks
  • Kari Bråthen
  • Jörg Brunet
  • Carl Dahlberg
  • Guillaume Decocq
  • Martin Diekmann
  • Mats Dynesius
  • Rasmus Ejrnaes
  • John-Arvid Grytnes
  • Kristoffer Hylander
  • Kari Klanderud
  • Miska Luoto
  • Ann Milbau
  • Mari Moora
  • Bettina Nygaard
  • Arvid Odland
  • Virve Ravolainen
  • Stefanie Reinhardt
  • Sylvi Sandvik
  • Fride Schei
  • James Speed
  • Liv Tveraabak
  • Vigdis Vandvik
  • Liv Velle
  • Risto Virtanen
  • Martin Zobel
  • Jens-Christian Svenning
Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.
Original languageEnglish
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume19
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)1470-1481
Number of pages12
ISSN1354-1013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

ID: 47422642