Contrasting phenology responses to climate warming across the northern extra-tropics
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Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of spring leaf-out of woody species at middle and high latitudes, albeit with large differences. Insights in the spatial variation of this climate warming response may therefore help to constrain future trends in leaf-out and its impact on energy, water and carbon balances at global scales. In this study, we used in situ phenology observations of 38 species from 2067 study sites, distributed across the northern hemisphere in China, Europe and the United States, to investigate the latitudinal patterns of spring leaf-out and its sensitivity (ST, advance of leaf-out dates per degree of warming) and correlation (RT, partial correlation coefficient) to temperature during the period 1980–2016. Across all species and sites, we found that ST decreased significantly by 0.15 ± 0.02 d °C−1 °N−1, and RT increased by 0.02 ± 0.001 °N−1 (both at P < 0.001). The latitudinal patterns in RT and ST were explained by the differences in requirements of chilling and thermal forcing that evolved to maximize tree fitness under local climate, particularly climate predictability and summed precipitation during the pre-leaf-out season. Our results thus showed complicated spatial differences in leaf-out responses to ongoing climate warming and indicated that spatial differences in the interactions among environmental cues need to be embedded into large-scale phenology models to improve the simulation accuracy.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Tidsskrift | Fundamental Research |
| Vol/bind | 2 |
| Udgave nummer | 5 |
| Sider (fra-til) | 708-715 |
| Antal sider | 8 |
| ISSN | 2667-3258 |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 2022 |
Bibliografisk note
CENPERMOA[2022]
Funding Information:
This study was supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (No. 42025101), the International Cooperation and Exchanges NSFC- STINT Project (42111530181), the General Program of National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 31770516), and the 111 Project (B18006). J. P and I.A.J acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 ?IMBALANCE-P?. The author thanks all members of the PEP725 project, National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure, and National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China for providing the phenological data. Y.H.F designed the research, X.G. and Y.Z. performed the analysis, Y.H.F. and X.G. drafted the paper. All authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and the writing of the paper.
Funding Information:
This study was supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (No. 42025101), the International Cooperation and Exchanges NSFC- STINT Project (42111530181), the General Program of National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 31770516), and the 111 Project (B18006). J. P and I.A.J acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P”. The author thanks all members of the PEP725 project, National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure, and National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China for providing the phenological data. Y.H.F designed the research, X.G., and Y.Z. performed the analysis, Y.H.F. and X.G. drafted the paper. All authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and the writing of the paper.
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© 2022
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