The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios
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The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios. / Mo, Yunhua; Chen, Shouzhi; Wu, Zhaofei; Tang, Jing; Fu, Yongshuo.
In: Earth's Future, Vol. 12, No. 3, e2023EF003788, 2024.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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T1 - The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios
AU - Mo, Yunhua
AU - Chen, Shouzhi
AU - Wu, Zhaofei
AU - Tang, Jing
AU - Fu, Yongshuo
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation phenology models that included chilling, forcing, and the photoperiod. Based on scenario data from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) derived from eight climate models, future vegetation phenology was predicted using the phenology models. Results showed that all the phenology models performed better than the NULL model (mean of the SOS), with the performance of one-phase models broadly matching that of two-phase models, although the best models varied by vegetation type. The spatial pattern of simulated SOS was similar among the models, and it explained >75% of the variation. Based on the mean predicted SOS, we found that spring vegetation phenology will continue to advance under strong warming conditions (SSP245 and SSP585), but that the trend of advance will reverse at around 2060 under the SSP126 scenario. The continued trend in SOS advance is likely related to rapid forcing fulfillment under stronger warming conditions. However, under moderate warming, chilling might be reduced and it might require longer to compensate for higher forcing, which ultimately would result in SOS delay. Our findings highlight that trends will likely change under different warming conditions, potentially causing widespread impact on species interaction, biodiversity, and ecosystem function.
AB - Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation phenology models that included chilling, forcing, and the photoperiod. Based on scenario data from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) derived from eight climate models, future vegetation phenology was predicted using the phenology models. Results showed that all the phenology models performed better than the NULL model (mean of the SOS), with the performance of one-phase models broadly matching that of two-phase models, although the best models varied by vegetation type. The spatial pattern of simulated SOS was similar among the models, and it explained >75% of the variation. Based on the mean predicted SOS, we found that spring vegetation phenology will continue to advance under strong warming conditions (SSP245 and SSP585), but that the trend of advance will reverse at around 2060 under the SSP126 scenario. The continued trend in SOS advance is likely related to rapid forcing fulfillment under stronger warming conditions. However, under moderate warming, chilling might be reduced and it might require longer to compensate for higher forcing, which ultimately would result in SOS delay. Our findings highlight that trends will likely change under different warming conditions, potentially causing widespread impact on species interaction, biodiversity, and ecosystem function.
KW - climate change
KW - phenology model
KW - reversed trend
KW - spring phenology
KW - temporal changes
U2 - 10.1029/2023EF003788
DO - 10.1029/2023EF003788
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85186395942
VL - 12
JO - Earth's Future
JF - Earth's Future
SN - 2328-4277
IS - 3
M1 - e2023EF003788
ER -
ID: 385122882