Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe
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Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe. / Thuiller, Wilfried; Lavorel, Sandra; Sykes, Martin T.; Bastos Araujo, Miguel.
In: Diversity and Distributions-a Journal of Biological Invasions and Biodiversity, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2006, p. 49-60.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe
AU - Thuiller, Wilfried
AU - Lavorel, Sandra
AU - Sykes, Martin T.
AU - Bastos Araujo, Miguel
N1 - KEYWORDS Climate change • functional diversity • niche-based models • species richness
PY - 2006
Y1 - 2006
N2 - Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.
AB - Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.
U2 - 10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x
M3 - Journal article
VL - 12
SP - 49
EP - 60
JO - Diversity and Distributions
JF - Diversity and Distributions
SN - 1366-9516
IS - 1
ER -
ID: 80201